Global temperatures could reach unprecedented levels in the next 5 years

Geneva (EFE) – The combination of human-caused climate change and the El Niño phenomenon make it likely that temperature world prices will reach unprecedented levels in the coming years, according to today’s published data World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The organization’s experts predict that the average annual temperature near the Earth’s surface could rise, temporarily, more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels between 2023 and 2027.

According to the calculations used, there is a 66% probability that the bar of an additional 1.5 degrees will be broken in this period for at least one year.

Likewise, there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, as well as the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.

This does not mean that we will permanently exceed the level of 1.5 degrees foreseen by the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming. However, the WMO is sounding the alarm that we will temporarily and increasingly exceed the 1.5 degree level,” he said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.

A Finnish expert warned that this increase in temperatures in the short term “will have consequences for people’s health, food safetyin water management and the environment”, for which he asked “to prepare”.

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More heat in the Arctic and less rain in the Amazon

Although the increase in temperatures will be widespread and will affect all continents, the WMO – the United Nations scientific body – predicts that the increase will be greatest around the Arctic.

In the extreme north of the Earth, the thermal anomaly could mean a three times higher temperature increase than in the rest of the world.

In general, the planet could withstand, at some very specific times, temperatures up to 1.8 degrees above the average for the period 1850-1900, which is used as a reference because before greenhouse gas emissions from human and industrial activities.

The warmest year on record was 2016 – when a very intense El Niño phenomenon took place – but WMO forecasts show it is very likely that this level could be exceeded before 2027.

On the other hand, the WMO predicts that the rains could be more intense in the Sahel region, in northern Europe, in Alaska and northern Siberia.

Instead, drier conditions are expected in parts of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and Australia.

Part of this increase is explained by the imminent appearance of the El Niño phenomenon, which causes an increase in global temperature and heavy rain or drought in some areas of Latin America, Africa and South Asia.

Recently, the WMO estimated that El Niño could begin to manifest itself in the coming months, coinciding with the southern winter and summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

Photo: EFE/Esteban Biba

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